Rising dust pollution across Europe in a changing climate

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Vasilakos, Petros N.; Upadhyay, Abhishek; Manousakas, Manousos I.; Alastuey, Andres; Allan, James D.; Alves, Celia A.; Bergmans, Benjamin; Brem, Benjamin T.; Castillo, Sonia; Christoudias, Theodoros; Colombi, Cristina; Conil, Sebastien; Dzepina, Katja; Eichler, Anja; Eleftheriadis, Konstantinos; Favez, Olivier; Flynn, Michael; Glojek, Kristina; Grange, Stuart K.; Green, David C.; Hueglin, Christoph; Jaffrezo, Jean-Luc; Jenk, Theo M.; Jiang, Jianhui; Krymova, Ekaterina; Lucarelli, Franco; Makoric, Petra; Massabo, Dario; Mihalopoulos, Nikolaos; Mocnik, Grisa; Modini, Robin L.; Mohr, Claudia; Naccarato, Attilio; Pokorna, Petra; Prati, Paolo; Probst-Hensch, Nicole; Prevot, Andre S. H.; Querol, Xavier; Reche, Cristina; de la Rosa, Jesus D.; Scerri, Mark M.; Sciare, Jean; Sigl, Michael; Tremper, Anja H.; Traversi, Rita; Banos, Daniel Trejo; Tsagkaraki, Maria; Uzu, Gaelle; Vecchi, Roberta; Via, Marta; de Hoogh, Kees; El-Haddad, Imad; Daellenbach, Kaspar R.
• 署名单位: Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; Paul Scherrer Institute; Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas (CSIC); CSIC - Centro de Investigacion y Desarrollo Pascual Vila (CID-CSIC); CSIC - Instituto de Diagnostico Ambiental y Estudios del Agua (IDAEA); University of Manchester; University of Manchester; UK Research & Innovation (UKRI); Natural Environment Research Council (NERC); NERC National Centre for Atmospheric Science; Universidade de Aveiro; Universidad de Jaen; University of Granada; Universidad de Cordoba; Instituto Interuniversitario de Investigacion del Sistema Tierra en Andalucia; University of Nova Gorica; University of Bern; Institut National de l'Environnement Industriel et des Risques (INERIS); Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Science & Technology (EMPA); University of Bern; Imperial College London; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); CNRS - National Institute for Earth Sciences & Astronomy (INSU); East China Normal University; Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne; Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; ETH Zurich; University of Florence; Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare (INFN); University of Nova Gorica; University of Genoa; University of Crete; National Observatory of Athens; University of Calabria; Czech Academy of Sciences; Institute of Chemical Process Fundamentals of the Czech Academy of Sciences; University of Basel; Swiss Tropical & Public Health Institute; University of Basel; University of Milan
• 刊物名称: NATURE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0028-0836; 1476-4687
• DOI: 10.1038/s41586-026-10743-w
• 发表日期: 2026-07-16
• 关键词: SAHARAN DUST; source apportionment; Mediterranean basin; PM10 CONCENTRATIONS; north-africa; middle-east; aerosol; JUNGFRAUJOCH; outbreaks; events

摘要

Mineral desert dust is a major contributor to total atmospheric particulate matter1. Desert dust outbreaks degrade air quality and can pose adverse health effects2, including asthma exacerbation3 and increased mortality4. At some European locations, there has been a rise in the intensity and frequency of transported dust outbreaks from deserts in recent decades5, 6, 7, 8-9. However, it remains unclear whether this increase is consistent across Europe and whether desertification and aridity or shifts in atmospheric circulation are the main drivers behind this rise. Here we compile a database of daily dust metal concentrations from European sites, establishing robust elemental ratios for transported dust. Using this database, we develop a machine learning model to estimate daily PM10 (particulate matter smaller than 10 mu m) dust concentrations from 2012 to 2021, ranging from 2.09 +/- 1.05 mu g m-3 across northern and central Europe to 5.28 +/- 2.65 mu g m-3 across the south. In southern Europe, residents are exposed to transported dust events averaging 9.68 +/- 4.85 mu g m-3, linked to a 0.67 +/- 0.02% rise in daily mortality. Intensified dust intrusions over the past decade are linked to shifts in atmospheric circulation. Data from an Alpine ice core record shows a 110% increase in dust concentrations since pre-industrial times, mostly associated with North African desertification. As climate change accelerates land degradation and affects weather patterns, worsening dust pollution may pose increasing risks to public health and air quality goals.