Food systems transformation would reshape global agriculture

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Gibson, Matthew; Sundiang, Marina; Mason-D'Croz, Daniel; Diniz Oliveira, Thais; Beier, Felicitas; Benavidez, Lauren; Bos, Astrid; Chepeliev, Maksym; Doelman, Jonathan; Dunston, Shahnila; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Havlik, Petr; Hristov, Jordan; Jagermeyr, Jonas; Kozicka, Marta; Kuiper, Marijke; Kyle, Page; de Lange, Thijs; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Luchtenbelt, Hermen; Chen, David Meng-Chuen; Mishra, Abhijeet; Muller, Christoph; Nelson, Gerald; Palazzo, Amanda; Perez Dominguez, Ignacio; Popp, Alexander; Sands, Ronald; Springmann, Marco; Stehfest, Elke; Sulser, Timothy B.; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Tassinari, Gianmaria; Thom, Ferike; Thornton, Philip; Tsuchiya, Kazuaki; van Zeist, Willem-Jan; van Meijl, Hans; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Van Vuuren, Detlef; van Zanten, Hannah H. E.; Weindl, Isabelle; Wiebe, Keith; Zhao, Xin; Herrero, Mario
• 署名单位: Cornell University; University of London; London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine; Cornell University; Wageningen University & Research; Potsdam Institut fur Klimafolgenforschung; Purdue University System; Purdue University; CGIAR; International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI); Kyoto University; Ritsumeikan University; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA); Columbia University; National Aeronautics & Space Administration (NASA); NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; Goddard Institute for Space Studies; Wageningen University & Research; United States Department of Energy (DOE); Pacific Northwest National Laboratory; Humboldt University of Berlin; University of Illinois System; University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign; Universitat Kassel; University of London; University College London; University of Oxford; National Institute for Environmental Studies - Japan; Johann Heinrich von Thunen Institute; CGIAR; International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI); Wageningen University & Research
• 刊物名称: NATURE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0028-0836; 1476-4687
• DOI: 10.1038/s41586-026-10775-2
• 发表日期: 2026-09-03
• 关键词: impacts; climate

摘要

Food systems are a major contributor to exceeding planetary boundaries1, 2-3 and poor quality diets are a key mortality risk globally4. Projected population and income growth could exacerbate these challenges5. In response, there are calls for transformation towards healthy and sustainable food systems6, 7-8. However, the scale and distribution of the impacts of this transformation on agriculture are underexplored. Here we show that, by 2050, the transformation of food systems towards healthy diets (adoption of the EAT-Lancet reference diet), improved productivity and halving of food waste results in a fundamental restructuring of global agriculture, aspects of which break with historical trends. Scenario simulations using a multimodel ensemble of ten global economic models show a 6% median decrease in agricultural land (+1% to -26%) compared with 2020 levels. By 2050, agricultural production would be 17% lower than business-as-usual projections (-2% to -32%) and, economically, the value of this production is US$1.6 trillion (26%) lower (+8% to -58%). Within this, the value of livestock production would be substantially lower than current 2050 projections (-49% to -83%), while vegetable, fruit, nut and legume production value would increase by 23% (-33% to +106%). Results are dependent on the assumed policies to achieve the transformation scenario. We highlight a more active role for food policy to consider the benefits of such a transformation (improved population health and reduced environmental pressures) and navigate the political economy of its impacts.