Wildfire smoke exposure and mortality burden in the USA under climate change

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Qiu, Minghao; Li, Jessica; Gould, Carlos F.; Jing, Renzhi; Kelp, Makoto; Childs, Marissa L.; Wen, Jeff; Xie, Yuanyu; Lin, Meiyun; Kiang, Mathew V.; Heft-Neal, Sam; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Burke, Marshall
• 署名单位: State University of New York (SUNY) System; Stony Brook University; State University of New York (SUNY) System; Stony Brook University; Stanford University; Stanford University; Stanford University; University of California System; University of California San Diego; Stanford University; Stanford University; Stanford Medicine; University of Washington; University of Washington Seattle; Princeton University; National Oceanic Atmospheric Admin (NOAA) - USA; Stanford Medicine; Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research
• 刊物名称: NATURE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0028-0836; 1476-4687
• DOI: 10.1038/s41586-025-09611-w
• 发表日期: 2025-11-27
• 关键词: FIRE EMISSIONS; particulate matter; air-pollution; UNITED-STATES; surface ozone; impacts; variability; HEALTH; pm2.5

摘要

Wildfire activity has increased in the USA and is projected to accelerate under future climate change1, 2-3. However, our understanding of the impacts of climate change on wildfire activity, smoke and health outcomes remains highly uncertain because of the difficulty of modelling the causal chain from climate to wildfire to air pollution and health. Here we quantify the mortality burden in the USA due to wildfire smoke fine particulate matter (PM2.5) under climate change. We construct an ensemble of statistical and machine learning models that link climate to wildfire smoke PM2.5 and empirically estimate smoke PM2.5-mortality relationships using data on all recorded deaths in the USA. We project that smoke PM2.5 could result in 71,420 excess deaths (95% confidence interval: 34,930-98,430) per year by 2050 under a high-warming scenario (shared socioeconomic pathway scenario 3-7.0, SSP3-7.0)-a 73% increase relative to the estimated 2011-2020 average annual excess deaths from smoke. Cumulative excess deaths from smoke PM2.5 could reach 1.9 million between 2026 and 2055. We find evidence for mortality impacts of smoke PM2.5 that last up to 3 years after exposure. When monetized, climate-driven smoke deaths result in economic damages that exceed existing estimates of climate-driven damages from all other causes combined in the USA4,5. Our research suggests that the health impacts of climate-driven wildfire smoke could be among the most important and costly consequences of a warming climate in the USA.