Skillful heat-related mortality forecasting during recent deadly European summers

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Holmberg, Emma; Quijal-Zamorano, Marcos; Ballester, Joan; Messori, Gabriele
• 署名单位: Uppsala University; Centre of Natural Hazards & Disaster Science (CNDS); Uppsala University; Uppsala University; ISGlobal; Pompeu Fabra University; University of Bern; University of Bern; Stockholm University; Stockholm University
• 刊物名称: PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0027-8424; 1091-6490
• DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2426516122
• 发表日期: 2025-10-14
• 页码: e2426516122
• 关键词: heat-related mortality; early-warning systems; impact forecasting; Temperature extremes; Europe; weather; HEALTH; wave; extremes; blocking; DYNAMICS; IMPACT

摘要

Europe is a heatwave hotspot: numerous temperature records have been broken in recent summers, and roughly 60,000 and 50,000 heat-related deaths occurred in the summers of 2022 and 2023, respectively. With recent summers, like that of 2022, projected to become the new norm, there is a pressing need to further develop heat-health warning systems to help society adapt to a warming climate. Here, we forecast heat-related mortality by applying a statistical epidemiological framework to temperature forecasts extending up to 2 wk in advance. Focusing on two recent and exceptional summers in Europe, namely 2022 and 2023, we evaluate the skill of the daily heat-related mortality forecasts, and assess its association with temperature. For most of Europe, milder temperatures, close to the minimum mortality temperature, are associated with more skillful heat-related mortality forecasts. However, some of the hottest regions in Europe instead showed enhanced forecast skill associated with higher temperatures. This suggests that heat-related mortality forecasts can provide valuable information in European regions associated with high levels of heat-related mortality. Consequently, we advocate for local health authorities to include information from forecasts of heat-related mortality in their heat warning systems.