Unraveling the epidemiological and dispersal dynamics of the 2024-2025 chikungunya virus epidemic on Réunion Island

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Frumence, Etienne; Klitting, Raphaelle; Serres, Kyla; Shao, Yucai; Monti, Filippo; Vincent, Muriel; Gill, Mandev S.; Suchard, Marc A.; Lemey, Philippe; de Lamballerie, Xavier; Jaffar-Bandjee, Marie-Christine; Dellicour, Simon
• 署名单位: Aix-Marseille Universite; Aix-Marseille Universite; Institut de Recherche pour le Developpement (IRD); Institut National de la Sante et de la Recherche Medicale (Inserm); Universite Libre de Bruxelles; Vrije Universiteit Brussel; Universite Libre de Bruxelles; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; University System of Georgia; University of Georgia; University System of Georgia; University of Georgia; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA; KU Leuven
• 刊物名称: PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0027-8424; 1091-6490
• DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2621019123
• 发表日期: 2026-09-22
• 页码: e2621019123
• 关键词: chikungunya fever; r & eacute; union; EPIDEMIC; arbovirus; phylodynamics; BASIC REPRODUCTION NUMBER; REUNION ISLAND; MODEL; infection; disease

摘要

R & eacute;union Island experienced a massive chikungunya virus epidemic in 2024-2025, with >54,000 confirmed cases. This is the second major chikungunya epidemic on the island, following the first one that peaked 20 years ago. It has been asserted that this new outbreak finds its origin in a single introduction event into the island, offering an opportunity to exploit viral genomic data to understand the epidemiological and dispersal dynamics of the introduced transmission chain. We sequenced >3,000 viral genomes collected during the epidemic. Harnessing this genomic dataset, we used several phylogeographic and phylodynamic approaches to unravel the paths taken by the transmission chain and the external factors that might have impacted its dispersal and epidemiological dynamics on the island. Our analyses highlight a dispersal pattern in line with a gravity-model dynamic with viral transition events being more frequent from and toward more populated areas. Our analyses reveal that the transmission chain was overall spatially intermixed, with frequent exchanges among residential areas. In addition, we show that the temporal dynamic and intensity of the epidemic were associated with climatic variables, namely temperature and precipitation. Our results also show that in theory, the population immunity-resulting from this epidemic and the previous one (2005-2006)-could be sufficient to explain on its own the decrease in the transmission rate that led to the end of the epidemic. While a short-term resurgence cannot be excluded, the risk of a large-scale circulation of the virus in the human population appears therefore relatively limited in the upcoming seasons.