Earthquake-triggered cascading hazards under Arctic amplification

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: de Melo, Guilherme W. S.; Hermanns, Reginald L.; Bendle, Jacob M.; Grevemeyer, Ingo; Fiolleau, Sylvain; Cesca, Simone; do Nascimento, Aderson F.; Ottemoller, Lars; Aslan, Gokhan; Brissaud, Quentin; Oye, Volker; Kopp, Heidrun
• 署名单位: Helmholtz Association; GEOMAR Helmholtz Center for Ocean Research Kiel; Geological Survey of Norway; Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte; University of Bergen; University of Kiel
• 刊物名称: PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0027-8424; 1091-6490
• DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2617210123
• 发表日期: 2026-09-22
• 页码: e2617210123
• 关键词: earthquake-triggered rock avalanche; Arctic amplification; permafrost degradation; tectonic-cryosphere interactions; JAN-MAYEN; VELOCITY-MEASUREMENTS; ROCK AVALANCHES; TRANSFORM-FAULT; temperature; glacier; permafrost; seismicity; SLOPES; ice

摘要

Arctic warming is reshaping permafrost and glacierized terrains, potentially changing their natural hazards in response to seismic shaking. On 10 March 2025, a Mw 6.5 oceanic transform fault earthquake near Jan Mayen Island in the Arctic Ocean triggered a large rock avalanche that buried part of the Kjerulf Glacier, generating infrasound signals and glacier calving. Using seismic, Global Navigation Satellite System data, infrasound records, satellite imagery, and long-term climatological records, we reconstruct a cascade of processes linking earthquake rupture to rock slope failure and ice calving. The rock avalanche occurred within minutes of the earthquake accompanied by a transient reduction in near-surface seismic velocity. Satellite observations further reveal multiple precursor slope failures during the years preceding the earthquake, indicating progressive instability of the slope. Long-term warming and permafrost degradation, likely contributed to reduce the slope stability, increasing susceptibility to the seismic ground shaking trigger. Our findings suggest that Arctic warming may progressively increase the susceptibility of slopes to earthquake-triggered failure in the Arctic, highlighting the emerging interactions between tectonic hazards, cryosphere instability, and climate change.