The air pollution benefits of low-severity fire

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Higuera-Mendieta, Ivan; Burke, Marshall
• 署名单位: Stanford University; Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research
• 刊物名称: SCIENCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0036-8075; 1095-9203
• DOI: 10.1126/science.aea2490
• 发表日期: 2026-06-11
• 页码: eaea2490
• 关键词: WILDLAND FIRES; sierra-nevada; BURN SEVERITY; wildfire; forest; california; weather; pm2.5; state

摘要

Wildfires are reversing decades of air quality improvements across much of the US. Expanded use of prescribed fire is a primary proposed solution, but air quality trade-offs-more initial smoke for less smoke later-remain poorly quantified. Using two decades of satellite-derived measurements of fire severity and smoke particulate matter across California, we assessed the causal effect of low-severity wildfire, a proxy for prescribed burning, on subsequent wildfire activity and air quality. We found that low-severity fire reduced the probability of very-high-severity wildfire by 92%, with reductions lasting a decade and extending 5 kilometers from treated locations. Reduced future smoke far outweighed the smoke produced during treatment, with benefit-cost ratios exceeding five after a decade. Sustained treatment of 500,000 acres annually would reduce cumulative smoke fine particulate matter (PM2.5) by about 10% after a decade.