Reentry and disintegration dynamics of space debris tracked using seismic data

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Fernando, Benjamin; Charalambous, Constantinos
• 署名单位: Johns Hopkins University; Imperial College London
• 刊物名称: SCIENCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0036-8075; 1095-9203
• DOI: 10.1126/science.adz4676
• 发表日期: 2026-01-22
• 页码: 412-416
• 关键词: fragmentation; breakup; signals; noise; MODEL

摘要

The risks posed by reentering space debris continue to grow as Earth's orbit becomes more crowded. Currently, responses to uncontrolled reentries are hampered by an inability to reliably track spacecraft once they are burning up within the atmosphere, meaning that debris fallout locations are poorly predicted. We have demonstrated a minimum-gradient fit seismic inversion methodology that allows in-atmosphere debris trajectory, speed, altitude, descent angle, size, and fragmentation pattern to be discerned relatively quickly. We tested this methodology on open-source data from the 2024 reentry of Shenzhou-15, deriving a location significantly south of the predicted track. Observations of cascading, multiplicative fragmentation offer insight into debris disintegration dynamics, with clear implications for space situational awareness and debris hazard mitigation.