Dynamic segmentation of the Sagaing fault

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Liu, Mingqi; Wang, Binhao; Guvercin, Sezim E.; Li, Zhen; Wang, Teng; Liu, Chuanjin; Ji, Lingyun; Barbot, Sylvain
• 署名单位: University of Southern California; Peking University; China Earthquake Administration; The Second Monitoring & Application Center, CEA; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Universite PSL; Ecole Normale Superieure (ENS); California Institute of Technology; China Earthquake Administration; Institute of Geology, CEA
• 刊物名称: SCIENCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0036-8075; 1095-9203
• DOI: 10.1126/science.ady3237
• 发表日期: 2026-05-07
• 页码: 617-623
• 关键词: GEODETIC OBSERVATIONS; aseismic slip; earthquakes; tectonics; myanmar; rupture

摘要

The structurally simple Sagaing fault, which ruptured during the 2025 moment magnitude 7.7 Mandalay earthquake, exhibits clear dynamic segmentation despite lacking major geometric complexities. Using physics-based seismic cycle simulations, we tested the hypothesis that dynamic segmentation on the Sagaing fault is influenced by a northward increase in long-term slip rates from 18 to 28 millimeter/year. Models incorporating geodetically constrained long-term slip rates reproduced the rupture extent of historical earthquakes and the geodetically inferred slip distribution of the 2025 mainshock. Slip rate contrasts of 10 to 20% between adjacent segments generate sufficient heterogeneous stress accumulation to initiate dynamic segmentation, regulating earthquake recurrence patterns and maximum magnitudes across the fault system. These results highlight the value of integrating geodetic, geological, and seismological observations to improve seismic hazard assessment.