Evaluating the Impact of Urban Transit Infrastructure: Evidence from Bogotá's TransMilenio

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Tsivanidis, Nick
• 署名单位: University of California System; University of California Berkeley
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282; 1944-7981
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.20190874
• 发表日期: 2026-02
• 页码: 418-463
• 关键词: determinants; migration; railroads; density

摘要

This paper estimates the effects of improving public transit infrastructure on city structure and welfare. It develops a quantitative urban model with multiple worker groups and transit modes, and derives a special case yielding sufficient statistics for aggregate welfare in a broad class of models. The paper estimates reduced-form elasticities to implement the approach using data spanning construction of the world's largest Bus Rapid Transit system in Bogot & aacute;, Colombia. This class of models explains observed adjustments in economic activity. Standard value-of-time calculations capture only 52 percent of welfare gains. Accounting for reallocation and general equilibrium effects, distributional impacts are modest. (JEL H76, L92, L98, O18, R42, R53)