Negative Control Falsification Tests for Instrumental Variable Designs

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Danieli, Oren; Nevo, Daniel; Walk, Itai; Weinstein, Bar; Zeltzer, Dan
• 署名单位: Tel Aviv University; University of California System; University of California Berkeley
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282; 1944-7981
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.20240636
• 发表日期: 2026-04
• 页码: 1380-1414
• 关键词: conditional-independence; Causal Inference; BIAS; impacts

摘要

The validity of instrumental variable (IV) designs is typically tested using two types of falsification tests. We characterize these tests as conditional independence tests between negative control variables - proxies for unobserved variables posing a threat to the identification - and the IV or the outcome. We describe the conditions variables must satisfy in order to serve as negative controls. We show these falsification tests examine not only independence and the exclusion restriction but also functional form assumptions. Our analysis reveals conventional applications of these tests may flag problems even in valid IV designs. We offer implementation guidance to address these issues. (JEL C12, C18, C26, C52)