Potential and the Gender Promotion Gap

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Benson, Alan; Li, Danielle; Shue, Kelly
• 署名单位: University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); National Bureau of Economic Research; Yale University
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282; 1944-7981
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.20220831
• 发表日期: 2026-02
• 页码: 375-417
• 关键词: calibration committees; racial bias; women; performance; DISCRIMINATION; INEQUALITY; decisions; attitudes; DYNAMICS; Managers

摘要

We show that subjective assessments of employee potential contribute to gender gaps in promotion and pay. Using data on 29,809 management-track employees from a large retail chain, we find that women receive substantially lower potential ratings despite receiving higher performance ratings. Differences in potential ratings account for approximately half of the gender promotion gap. Women's lower potential ratings do not reflect accurate forecasts of future performance: Women subsequently outperform male colleagues, both on average and on the margin of promotion. We highlight two mechanisms driving the gender potential gap: strategic retention and stereotyping.