Heterogeneous Effects of Large and Small Minimum Wage Changes: Evidence Using a Partially Precommitted Analysis Plan

• 成果类型: Article; Early Access
• 署名作者: Clemens, Jeffrey; Strain, Michael R.
• 署名单位: University of California System; University of California San Diego
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF LABOR ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0734-306X
• DOI: 10.1086/736552
• 发表日期: 2026
• 关键词: employment; increases

摘要

Through an analysis of minimum wages, we explore the prospects for harnessing the key benefits of preanalysis plans (namely, reductions in p-hacking) while mitigating their costs (namely, reductions in practicability) when used in nonexperimental settings. Our precommitted analyses emphasize heterogeneity in the minimum wage's effects. We estimate that large recent minimum wage increases reduced employment among individuals with low levels of experience and education by just over 2.5 percentage points, with implied elasticities that are above the consensus range from recent literature reviews. Smaller increases, by contrast, have effects that are statistically indistinguishable from zero.