Jumping the Gun: The Effects of Permitless Concealed Carry Laws on Crime

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Parker, Susan T.
• 署名单位: Northwestern University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF POLICY ANALYSIS AND MANAGEMENT
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1520-6688
• DOI: 10.1002/pam.70123
• 发表日期: 2026-07-21
• 页码: e70123
• 关键词: firearm; police; public policy; violent crime; firearms; cops

摘要

In the last decade, one of the most substantial changes to firearm policy is the widespread adoption of permitless concealed carry laws. Since 2015, more than 20 states have adopted a permitless carry law. Permitless carry laws allow firearm owners to carry a concealed handgun in public without first obtaining a license and undergoing a background check. This article estimates the causal impact of permitless carry laws on crime using stacked event study estimators. I find that violent crime increases by 7% in the 12 months following the law's adoption, with increases beginning shortly after passage, or several months before the law formally takes effect. I find no evidence of offsetting deterrence in property crime. The rise in violence is driven by a 12% increase in aggravated assaults involving firearms. These effects are accompanied by a 22% decline in police enforcement of weapons law violations and modest increases in reports of stolen firearms.