Can Crime Be Deterred at Low Cost? Evidence From a Randomized Experiment in New York

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Aboaba, Oludamilare; Chalfin, Aaron; Laforest-Tucker, Michael; Parker, Lucie; Sharkey, Patrick
• 署名单位: University of Pennsylvania; National Bureau of Economic Research; George Washington University; University of Chicago; Princeton University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF POLICY ANALYSIS AND MANAGEMENT
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1520-6688
• DOI: 10.1002/pam.70092
• 发表日期: 2026-03-11
• 页码: e70092
• 关键词: employment

摘要

Can crime be deterred at low cost? We report the results of a randomized experiment of a messaging intervention designed to deter offending among individuals under parole supervision with a prior violent felony conviction or firearm arrest. The intervention consisted of a group meeting in which high-risk paroled individuals were notified of the sanction they would face upon reoffending while being offered community resources to support re-integration into the community. The program did not lead to a notable reduction in future arrests or create community spillover effects but did reduce parole violations by 15%. Potential mechanisms and implications for similar programs are discussed.