Under Pressure: Analyzing LEO Turnover in America's Swing and Pivot Counties for 2016, 2020, 2024

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Johnson, Gary; Cragun, Spencer; Yoder, Jake
• 刊物名称: PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0033-3352; 1540-6210
• DOI: 10.1111/puar.70172
• 发表日期: 2026-09
• 页码: 1178-1212
• 关键词: ELECTION; capacity

摘要

Post-2024, the United States faces an acute labor crisis marked by accelerating Local Election Official (LEO) attrition. This study examines causal drivers of this exodus, focusing specifically on disproportionate turnover within volatile swing and pivot counties. Utilizing a mixed-methods design, using longitudinal data from the Bipartisan Policy Center, US Census Bureau, Elections Voter Survey, MIT Election Data and Science Lab (MEDSL), and the Reed LEO survey, alongside an original dataset compiled from 74 competitive counties and 25 super landslide counties. Using Geographic Information Systems, we connect a detailed county profile to spatial mapping of the legal and political environment across the 2016, 2020, and 2024 elections. LEOs in highly competitive jurisdictions face an erosion of institutional trust, serving as a primary catalyst for departure. These volatile jurisdictions highlight where democratic machinery is vulnerable, offering evidence-based insights for state-level policy interventions designed to stabilize the public administrative workforce amidst unprecedented hyperpolarization.