The Aftermath of Sovereign Debt Crises: A Narrative Approach

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Esteves, Rui; Kenny, Sean; Lennard, Jason
• 署名单位: University College Cork; Lund University; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC HISTORY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-0507
• DOI: 10.1017/S0022050725100995
• 发表日期: 2026
• 关键词: country risk; monetary-policy; interest-rates; Tax changes; default; credit; GROWTH; TRADE; COSTS; instability

摘要

This paper investigates the causal effects of sovereign debt crises in a sample of 50 defaulting economies between 1870 and 2010. As default is potentially endogenous, we use the narrative approach to identify plausibly exogenous episodes. We find economically and statistically significant costs of up to 3.2 percent of GDP before recovering to the pre-crisis level after five years. The average aftermath, however, conceals a large heterogeneity by default cause. Defaults originating from negative supply shocks, political crises, or adverse terms of trade are associated with higher costs. Demand shocks, in contrast, have a moderate effect that is quickly reversed.