Failing to correctly aggregate signals
成果类型：
Article
署名作者：
Piccione, Michele; Rubinstein, Ariel
署名单位：
University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Tel Aviv University; New York University
刊物名称：
GAMES AND ECONOMIC BEHAVIOR
ISSN/ISSBN：
0899-8256
DOI：
10.1016/j.geb.2026.02.003
发表日期：
2026
关键词：
摘要：
Individuals fail to recognize that two weak positive signals of a rare event together constitute strong evidence for the event. We demonstrate the dramatic effect of replacing Bayesian aggregation of signals with commonly used aggregation procedures in a simple model of opinion formation and a model of strategic voting.