Insecurity and Firm Displacement: Evidence from Afghan Corporate Phone Records

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Herskowitz, Sylvan; Blumenstock, Joshua E.; Ghani, Tarek; Kapstein, Ethan B.; Scherer, Thomas L.; Toomet, Ott
• 署名单位: The World Bank; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Washington University (WUSTL); Princeton University; University of California System; University of California San Diego; University of Washington; University of Washington Seattle
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-ECONOMIC POLICY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7731
• DOI: 10.1257/pol.20230295
• 发表日期: 2026
• 关键词: CONFLICT; INVESTMENT; TERRORISM; patterns; BUSINESS; GROWTH; IMPACT

摘要

We provide empirical evidence on how insecurity affects firm behavior by linking data on deadly terrorist attacks in Afghanistan to geolocated data on corporate mobile phone activity. We first develop an approach to estimate the geographic footprint of firms based on employee locations. Using these measures, our main analysis shows that violent shocks reduce local firm presence by both increasing firm exit and decreasing entry. Firms respond most strongly to violence in their headquarters districts. We also find suggestive evidence of persistence; stronger impacts in more secure districts; and spillovers, whereby attacks in provincial capitals reduce firm presence in surrounding rural districts. (JEL D22, K42, L11, L96, O18, R32)