Fiscal Procyclicality in Commodity Exporting Countries: How Much Does It Pour and Why?

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Marioli, Francisco Arroyo; Vegh, Carlos A.
• 署名单位: The World Bank; Johns Hopkins University; National Bureau of Economic Research
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-ECONOMIC POLICY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7731
• DOI: 10.1257/pol.20230668
• 发表日期: 2026
• 关键词: policy; institutions; TRADE

摘要

A large literature has documented that fiscal policy is procyclical in emerging markets/developing countries and acyclical/countercycli-cal in advanced economies. This paper analyzes fiscal procyclicality in commodity-exporting countries. The paper makes two novel contributions. First, based on the when it rains, it pours phenomenon (that is, contractionary fiscal policy amplifies the business cycle), the paper shows that, on average, government spending magnifies the business cycle by 21 percent of the initial drop in output following a fall in commodity prices. Second, the paper estimates the welfare costs of fiscal procyclicality at 36 percent of the commodity business cycle. (JEL E32, E62, F14, H50, O19, Q02)