Road End Points and City Sizes

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Barsanetti, Bruno
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0034-6535
• DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01368
• 发表日期: 2026
• 关键词: population-growth; railroads; persistence; IMPACT; roots

摘要

I examine the long-run effects of the timing of railroad construction on city sizes. I first present a stylized model that predicts that towns that are railroad end points for a longer period of time become persistently larger. I then show that, in a sample of Brazilian railroad towns, time as end point strongly predicts town size: each additional year that a town was a railroad end point in the past is associated with a town population 0.107 log points larger in 2010. Additional testable implications of the model and an instrumental variable approach suggest that such an association reflects a causal effect.