The Intergenerational Effects of Parental Incarceration

• 成果类型: Article; Early Access
• 署名作者: Gronqvist, Hans; Niknami, Susan; Palme, Marten; Priks, Mikael
• 署名单位: Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN); Linnaeus University; Stockholm University; Stockholm University
• 刊物名称: ECONOMIC JOURNAL
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0013-0133
• DOI: 10.1093/ej/ueaf136
• 发表日期: 2026
• 关键词: PATERNAL INCARCERATION; MATERNAL IMPRISONMENT; outcomes evidence; IMPACT; EMPLOYMENT; exposure; crime; neighborhoods; associations; education

摘要

We estimate the causal effects of parental incarceration on children's short- and long-run outcomes using administrative data from Sweden. Our empirical strategy exploits exogenous variation in parental incarceration arising from the random assignment of criminal defendants to judges with different incarceration tendencies. We find that incarceration of a parent in childhood leads to a significant increase in teen criminal convictions, a decrease in schooling outcomes and worse labour market outcomes in adulthood. The effects are concentrated among children from disadvantaged families, in particular those in which the remaining non-convicted parent is disadvantaged. These results suggest that the incarceration of parents with young children may significantly increase the intergenerational persistence of poverty and criminal behaviour in affluent countries with extensive social safety nets and progressive criminal justice systems.