Non-Linear Monetary Policy Trade-Offs

• 成果类型: Article; Early Access
• 署名作者: Debortoli, Davide; Forni, Mario; Gambetti, Luca; Sala, Luca
• 署名单位: ICREA; Pompeu Fabra University; Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional (CREI); Barcelona School of Economics; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia; Autonomous University of Barcelona; University of Turin; Bocconi University; Bocconi University
• 刊物名称: ECONOMIC JOURNAL
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0013-0133
• DOI: 10.1093/ej/ueaf132
• 发表日期: 2026
• 关键词: ASYMMETRIC TRANSMISSION; credit spreads; inflation; identification; shocks; output; COSTS; vars

摘要

We measure the inflation-unemployment trade-off associated with monetary easing and tightening, during booms and recessions, using a novel, non-linear Proxy structural vector autoregression approach. We find evidence of significant non-linearities for the US economy (1973:M1-2019:M6): stimulating economic activity during recessions is associated with minimal costs in terms of inflation, and reducing inflation during booms delivers small costs in terms of unemployment. These results can be rationalised by a simple model with downward nominal wage rigidities, which is also used to assess the validity of our empirical approach.