Financial Intermediaries and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from a High-Frequency Identification

• 成果类型: Article; Early Access
• 署名作者: Ottonello, Pablo; Song, Wenting
• 署名单位: University System of Maryland; University of Maryland Baltimore; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of California System; University of California Davis
• 刊物名称: ECONOMIC JOURNAL
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0013-0133
• DOI: 10.1093/ej/ueaf119
• 发表日期: 2026
• 关键词: monetary-policy surprises; interest-rates; shocks; IMPACT; COSTS; MODEL; debt

摘要

We provide empirical evidence on how news about financial intermediaries' net worth impacts the aggregate economy, using a high-frequency identification strategy. We measure 'financial shocks' based on the idiosyncratic stock price changes of large US intermediaries in a narrow window around their earnings announcements. We document significant effects of these shocks on the stock price and borrowing costs of non-financial firms, as well as on macroeconomic variables. The effects are more pronounced for firms with low credit ratings and when the aggregate net worth of intermediaries is low.