Contrasting the Local and National Demographic Incidence of Local Labour Demand Shocks

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Mansfield, Richard K.
• 署名单位: University of Colorado System; University of Colorado Boulder
• 刊物名称: ECONOMIC JOURNAL
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0013-0133
• DOI: 10.1093/ej/ueaf092
• 发表日期: 2026
• 关键词: MARKETS EVIDENCE; econometrics; migration; location; models

摘要

This paper examines how spatial frictions that differ among heterogeneous workers and establishments shape the geographic and demographic incidence of alternative local labour demand shocks, with implications for the appropriate level of government at which to fund local economic initiatives. Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics data featuring millions of job transitions facilitate estimation of a rich two-sided labour market assignment model. The model generates simulated forecasts of many alternative local demand shocks featuring different establishment compositions and local areas. Workers within 10 miles receive only 11.2% (6.6%) of nationwide welfare (employment) short-run gains, with at least 35.9% (62.0%) accruing to out-of-state workers, despite much larger per-worker impacts for the closest workers. Local incidence by demographic category is very sensitive to shock composition, but different shocks produce similar demographic incidence further from the shock. Furthermore, the remaining heterogeneity in incidence at the state or national level can reverse patterns of heterogeneous demographic impacts at the local level. Overall, the results suggest that reduced-form approaches using distant locations as controls can produce accurate estimates of local shock impacts on local workers, but that the distribution of local impacts badly approximates shocks' statewide or national incidence.