Introduction
Global debt markets are navigating a difficult terrain. Geopolitical tensions, trade disputes, and an uncertain macroeconomic environment are adding pressure to already stretched markets. But debt markets have been resilient so far. This stability, however, masks deeper structural developments. The cost of long-term borrowing has risen, and the resulting shift in issuance towards shorter maturities increases refinancing risks. The growing role of more price-sensitive investors may also make debt markets more vulnerable to shocks. Their future resilience is therefore not guaranteed. This is particularly important as the scaling of AI and growing defence spending are expected to further increase borrowing from the markets.
These challenges must be carefully managed to ensure that sovereign and corporate bond markets, with a combined size of USD 109 trillion, continue to provide stable financing to governments and corporations. The 2026 Global Debt Report aims to support efforts to sustain the resilience of debt markets.
Key figures
USD 29 tln
The record amount governments and companies are projected to borrow from bond markets in 2026 – 17% more than in 2024.
78%
Share of borrowing by OECD governments in 2026 that will go to refinance existing debt.
USD 1.2 tln
Expected corporate bond issuance by 9 major AI players to fund capital expenditure needs in 2026-2030.
Government and corporate borrowing is expected to reach USD 29 trillion in 2026
Governments and companies are set to borrow USD 29 trillion from bond markets in 2026. This is USD 4 trillion, or 17% higher than in 2024, and double the amount ten years ago. Central government borrowing in OECD countries reached USD 17 trillion in 2025. Corporate borrowing from markets also increased, reaching USD 6.8 trillion.
The growing cost of long‑term borrowing is increasing short‑term refinancing risks
The post-2022 increase in interest rates continues to impact global debt markets. While shorter-term rates stabilised in OECD countries in 2025, 30-year yields rose significantly across most countries. Sovereign and corporate borrowers have responded to the increase in longer-term interest costs by shifting their issuance towards shorter maturities. While lowering interest costs in the short term, this shift also increases near-term refinancing risks.
Changes in the investor base could make markets more vulnerable to shocks
Central banks, the largest domestic holders of government debt in many OECD countries, have reduced their bond holdings. With continuously high issuance, this means that the market is increasingly dependent on price-sensitive investors, such as hedge funds, households and certain foreign investors. This shift could increase market volatility. It also reverberates in the corporate bond market, leaving growing new corporate issuance to be absorbed by a smaller investor base.
AI borrowing is set to have significant impact on corporate debt markets
The technology sector has traditionally relied less on external financing than most other sectors. The AI race is changing that dynamic. In 2025, nine major players raised USD 122 billion from bond markets, nearly half of all technology firm issuance globally. Cumulatively, they have forecast capital expenditures of USD 4.1 trillion for 2026-2030. This is USD 1.1 trillion more than total capital expenditure by all US non-financial companies in 2025.