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OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2025 Issue 2

  • 时间：2025-12-02

Introduction

The global economy has proved more resilient than expected this year, supported by improved financial conditions, rising AI-related investment and trade, and macroeconomic policies. However, underlying fragilities are increasing. Labour markets are showing first signs of weakening despite the OECD unemployment rate steady at 4.9%, with job vacancies falling below their 2019 average in many countries and confidence softening. Risks around the outlook remain significant, including the prospect of further trade barriers, a potential sharp repricing of risk in financial markets, potentially amplified by stresses in leveraged non-bank financial institutions and volatile crypto-asset markets. Lingering fiscal concerns could lead to further increases in long-term bond yields, which may tighten financial conditions and elevate debt-service burdens, potentially weighing on economic growth.

Key figures

2.9% 

Projected global GDP growth for 2026

3.1%

Projected GDP growth in OECD countries for 2027

Global growth has been resilient but is projected to moderate 

Global GDP growth is projected to ease from 3.2% in 2025 to 2.9% in 2026 and then strengthen slightly to 3.1% in 2027.

Near-term activity is expected to soften as higher effective tariff rates gradually feed through, weighing on investment and trade, amid persistent geopolitical and policy uncertainty. Growth is expected to firm again later in 2026 as the impact of tariffs fades, financial conditions improve and lower inflation supports demand, with emerging Asian economies remaining the key contributors to global growth.

Inflation is projected to continue to decline towards central bank targets 

Headline inflation remains sticky in some regions but is projected to be back to target by 2027 in almost all major economies.

Annual consumer price inflation in the G20 is projected to ease from 3.4% this year to 2.8% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027. 

Structural reforms are essential to reinforce growth prospects 

Productivity and economic dynamism have slowed over the past two decades. Since the late 1990s, growth in output per capita has declined by about one percentage point across the OECD and the sustained slowdown in multi-factor productivity has raised concerns that the engines of innovation and business dynamism have been losing momentum.

Stronger growth would emerge if governments further advanced structural reforms. In particular, regulatory reforms could boost business dynamism and productivity growth. 

What can policymakers do?

Countries need to find ways of engaging co-operatively within the global trading system and working together to make trade policy more predictable and secure a lasting resolution to trade tensions.

Central banks should remain alert to shifts in inflation dynamics. Where underlying inflation is moderating and expectations remain anchored, gradual policy rate reductions can continue, while economies facing tariff-driven price pressures may need to remain more cautious.

Stretched valuations in financial markets, including the rapid growth in crypto-asset market capitalisation, and the growing interconnections between banks and non-bank financial institutions call for enhanced vigilance to safeguard financial stability. Effective monitoring, supervision and robust regulatory policies are needed, in line with internationally-recommended norms, with reforms being implemented across jurisdictions in a timely and consistent manner to minimise regulatory arbitrage.

Countries need to ensure debt sustainability through credible medium-term plans, increasing efforts to contain spending and improve its efficiency, reallocating expenditures, and strengthening revenues, while preserving targeted support for vulnerable groups.

Constrained fiscal capacity in many economies, new trade barriers and weak growth prospects underline the need for reforms that boost resilience and living standards. Regulatory improvements that support innovation, business growth and labour mobility can enhance productivity and adaptability, while financial-sector reforms can improve capital allocation and reduce systemic risks.