Planning clinical trials to evaluate early detection programmes

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Hu, P; Zelen, M
• 署名单位: Harvard University; Harvard University Medical Affiliates; Dana-Farber Cancer Institute
• 刊物名称: BIOMETRIKA
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0006-3444
• DOI: 10.1093/biomet/84.4.817
• 发表日期: 1997
• 页码: 817829
• 关键词: breast-cancer detection; death rates; lead time; mammography; mortality; disease

摘要

The lack of statistical theory for the planning of early detection trials has resulted in current trials being sub-optimal. We develop probability models that address three characteristics of early detection trials: (i) the optimal time of analysis and length of follow-up, (ii) the optimal spacing between examinations, and (iii) the planning of trials where the numbers of examinations versus sample size are balanced for fixed costs. The optimisation criterion is to maximise the power of the statistical test for comparing mortality. Application is made to breast cancer early detection trials.