Generalized Fiducial Inference: A Review and New Results

• 成果类型: Review
• 署名作者: Hannig, Jan; Iyer, Hari; Lai, Randy C. S.; Lee, Thomas C. M.
• 署名单位: University of North Carolina; University of North Carolina Chapel Hill; National Institute of Standards & Technology (NIST) - USA; University of California System; University of California Davis; University of Maine System; University of Maine Orono
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0162-1459
• DOI: 10.1080/01621459.2016.1165102
• 发表日期: 2016
• 页码: 1346-1361
• 关键词: confidence-intervals; objective priors; model selection; distributions; INFORMATION; posterior; probability; regression; parameter; FRAMEWORK

摘要

R. A. Fisher, the father of modern statistics, proposed the idea of fiducial inference during the first half of the 20th century. While his proposal led to interesting methods for quantifying uncertainty, other prominent statisticians of the time did-not accept Fisher's approach as it became apparent that some of Fisher's bold claims about the properties of fiducial distribution did not hold up for multi-parameter problems. Beginning around the year 2000, the authors, and collaborators started to reinvestigate the idea of fiducial inference and discovered that Fisher's approach, when properly generalized, would open doors to solve many important and difficult inference problems. They termed their generalization of Fisher's idea as generalized fiducial inference (GFI). The main idea of GFI is to carefully transfer randomness from the data to the parameter space using an inverse of a data-generating equation without the use of Bayes' theorem. The resulting generalized fiducial distribution (GFD) can then be used for inference. After more than a decade of investigations, the authors and collaborators :have developed a unifying theory for GFI, and provided GFI solutions to many challenging practical problems in different fields of science and industry. Overall, they have demonstrated that GFI is a valid, useful, and promising approach for conducting statistical inference. The goal,of this article is to deliver a timely and concise introduction to GFI, to present some of the latest results, as well as to list some related open research problems. It is authors ope that their contributions to GFI will stimulate the growth and usage of this exciting approach for statistical inference. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.