Probabilistic Cause-of-Death Assignment Using Verbal Autopsies

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: McCormick, Tyler H.; Li, Zehang Richard; Calvert, Clara; Crampin, Amelia C.; Kahn, Kathleen; Clark, Samuel J.
• 署名单位: University of Washington; University of Washington Seattle; University of Washington; University of Washington Seattle; University of London; London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine; University of Witwatersrand; University System of Ohio; Ohio State University; University of London; London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine; INDEPTH Network
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0162-1459
• DOI: 10.1080/01621459.2016.1152191
• 发表日期: 2016
• 页码: 1036-1049
• 关键词: health; counts; profile

摘要

In regions without complete-coverage civil registration and vitalstatistics systems:there is uncertainty about even the most basic demographic indicators. In such regions, the majority of deaths occur outside hospitals and are not recorded. Worldwide, fewer than one-third of deaths are assigned a cause, with the least information available from the most impoverished nations. In populations like this, verbal autopsy (VA) is a commonly used tool to assess cause of death and estimate cause-specific mortality rates and the distribution of deaths by cause. VA uses an interview with caregivers of the decedent to elicit data describing the signs and symptoms leading up to the death. This article develops a-new statistical tool known as InSilicoVA to classify cause of death using information acquired through VA. InSilicoVA shares uncertainty between cause of death assignments for specific individuals and the distribution of deaths by cause across the population. Using side-by-side comparisons with both observed and simulated data, we demonstrate that InSilicoVA has distinct advantages compared to currently available methods. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.