INFERENCE FOR POPULATION DYNAMICS IN THE NEOLITHIC PERIOD

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Baggaley, Andrew W.; Boys, Richard J.; Golightly, Andrew; Sarson, Graeme R.; Shukurov, Anvar
• 署名单位: Newcastle University - UK
• 刊物名称: ANNALS OF APPLIED STATISTICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1932-6157
• DOI: 10.1214/12-AOAS579
• 发表日期: 2012
• 页码: 1352-1376
• 关键词: Calibration; SPREAD; Europe; colonization; chronology; dispersals; wave

摘要

We consider parameter estimation for the spread of the Neolithic incipient farming across Europe using radiocarbon dates. We model the arrival time of farming at radiocarbon-dated, early Neolithic sites by a numerical solution to an advancing wavefront. We allow for (technical) uncertainty in the radiocarbon data, lack-of-fit of the deterministic model and use a Gaussian process to smooth spatial deviations from the model. Inference for the parameters in the wavefront model is complicated by the computational cost required to produce a single numerical solution. We therefore employ Gaussian process emulators for the arrival time of the advancing wavefront at each radiocarbon-dated site. We validate our model using predictive simulations.