Useless arithmetic: Ten points to ponder when using mathematical models in environmental decision making

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Pilkey-Jarvis, Linda; Pilkey, Orrin H.
• 署名单位: Duke University
• 刊物名称: PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0033-3352
• DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6210.2008.00883_2.x
• 发表日期: 2008
• 页码: 470-479

摘要

Increasingly central to policy debates over environmental and natural resources management (ENR) worldwide is confidence in the validity of the results generated by complex mathematical models. Linda Pilkey-Jarvis of Washington State's Department of Ecology and OrrinPilkey of Duke University launch this edition's exchange among scholars and practitioners by arguing that misplaced faith in quantitative modeling can seriously distort ENR policy debates. They call for greater reliance on hard data and observations afforded by scientific fieldwork. Culling insights from examples of how modeling hubris and political or administrative mischief distorted sound ENR management decisions, they offer policy makers a template of questions to ask themselves or to pose to modelers before accepting policy recommendations informed by mathematical models. PAR readers seeking critical commentary on the authors' arguments will find reactions on the PAR Web site by the following experts: Howard R. Ernst, U. S. Naval Academy; Daniel J. Fiorino, U. S. Environmental Protection Agency; and Berton Lee Lamb and Nina Burkardt, U. S. Geological Survey ( go to aspanet.org, click on the link to PAR, and then on the Theory to Practice link). Also posted are instructions for joining the e-Theory to Practice exchange.