Employee Turnover Effects of the 2018-2019 United States Federal Government Shutdown

• 成果类型: Article; Early Access
• 署名作者: Resh, William G.; Ahn, Yongjin; Wang, Weijie; Lee, Keunyoung Eli
• 署名单位: University System of Georgia; Georgia State University; Korea University; Texas A&M University System; Texas A&M University College Station; American University
• 刊物名称: PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0033-3352
• DOI: 10.1111/puar.70032
• 发表日期: 2025
• 关键词: ORGANIZATIONAL PERFORMANCE; UNFOLDING MODEL; voluntary; IMPACT; adaptation; Intention; EXIT

摘要

As shutdowns have increased in frequency and length for the US federal government, such dysfunction may impact the federal government's ability to retain talent. In December of 2018 through January of 2019, the US federal government and its workforce endured the longest shutdown in its history. However, we know little about that shutdown's effects on the US federal civil service labor market. In this paper, we examine the intervening impact of the 2018-2019 government shutdown on personnel separations. Through the collection of data sources, we assess the shutdown's impact using two-way fixed effects difference-in-differences models of both whether an agency was shut down and whether the percentage of workers who were temporarily furloughed in an agency could adequately capture the intensity of that shutdown. Results indicate that the 2019 shutdown impacted separations and that it did so in distinct ways across different cohorts of employees in affected agencies. This work helps inform those who study or practice strategic workforce development about the impacts of political events on labor dynamics.