The roles of task-specific forecasting experience and innate ability in understanding analyst forecasting performance

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Clement, Michael B.; Koonce, Lisa; Lopez, Thomas J.
• 署名单位: University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; University of South Carolina System; University of South Carolina Columbia
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF ACCOUNTING & ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0165-4101
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jacceco.2007.04.002
• 发表日期: 2007
• 关键词: restructuring charges; security; determinants; KNOWLEDGE; accuracy

摘要

Considerable debate exists about what analyst experience measures and whether analysts learn from their experiences. Extant research has argued that once innate ability is considered, analysts' general and firm-specific experiences are not relevant to understanding their forecasting performance. We argue that measures of experience need to be expanded to also include task-specific experience. Our results reveal that analysts' forecast accuracy is associated with both their innate ability and task-specific experience. In addition, we find that forecast accuracy and task-specific experience are most highly correlated for those analysts who survive the longest and, thus, presumably have the greatest innate abilities. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.