GDP management to meet or beat growth targets

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Lyu, Changjiang; Wang, Kemin; Zhang, Frank; Zhang, Xin
• 署名单位: Fudan University; Yale University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF ACCOUNTING & ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0165-4101
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jacceco.2018.07.001
• 发表日期: 2018
• 关键词: gross domestic product; earnings management; ECONOMIC-GROWTH; CHINA; INFORMATION; incentives; distributions; performance; statistics; forecasts

摘要

We apply the discontinuity methodology from the accounting literature to a political economy setting of GDP reporting and examine whether Chinese local governments manage regional GDP numbers. We find strong evidence of discontinuities around zero in the distribution of actual minus target GDP growth rates. The frequencies of just meeting or beating GDP growth targets are about five (four) times the frequencies of just missing targets at the prefecture (province) level. The results are stronger for governors with longer tenures and those without political connections to higher-level officials as well as for local governments with more resources under their control.