Terrorist Attacks, Analyst Sentiment, and Earnings Forecasts

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Cuculiza, Carina; Antoniou, Constantinos; Kumar, Alok; Maligkris, Anastasios
• 署名单位: University of Miami; University of Warwick
• 刊物名称: MANAGEMENT SCIENCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0025-1909
• DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2019.3575
• 发表日期: 2021
• 页码: 2579-2608
• 关键词: analyst sentiment; FORECAST ACCURACY; extreme events; Terrorist attacks

摘要

We examine whether exogenous and extremely negative events, such as terrorist attacks and mass shootings, influence the sentiment and forecasts of sell-side equity analysts. We find that analysts who are local to these attacks issue forecasts that are relatively more pessimistic than the consensus forecast. This effect is stronger when the analyst is closer to the event and located in a low-crime region. Impacted analysts are also relatively more pessimistic around the one-and two-year anniversaries of the attacks. Collectively, these findings indicate that exposure to extreme negative events affects the behavior of information intermediaries and the information dissemination process in financial markets.