Climate Change and Uncertainty: An Asset Pricing Perspective

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Barnett, Michael
• 刊物名称: MANAGEMENT SCIENCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0025-1909
• DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2022.4635
• 发表日期: 2023
• 页码: 7562-7584
• 关键词: climate change; model uncertainty; Production-based asset pricing

摘要

Climate change and uncertainty about its potential consequences has become a central concern for economists, investors, and policymakers alike. I use a stochastic, dynamic general equilibrium model where final output is produced using a mix of cheap, dirty inputs and expensive, clean inputs and preferences incorporate aversion to climate model misspecification to analyze the implications of climate change and climate model uncertainty on economic and financial market outcomes. I find that climate change leads to increased clean input production and reduced emissions and that there is a negative price of climate risk that is significantly amplified and increasing in magnitude as climate change increases due to aversion to climate model uncertainty. Existing empirical estimates are consistent with the model implications, highlighting the potentially significant influence of climate model uncertainty on macroeconomic and asset pricing outcomes.