Reference Dependence in Intertemporal Preference

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Li, Zhihua; Zhong, Songfa
• 署名单位: University of Birmingham; National University of Singapore
• 刊物名称: MANAGEMENT SCIENCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0025-1909
• DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2022.4348
• 发表日期: 2023
• 页码: 475-490
• 关键词: intertemporal preference; reference dependence; Choice list; experiment

摘要

Dynamic structures in intertemporal choices offer multiple channels through which reference dependence can occur. We examine intertemporal reference dependence when using choice lists to elicit time preference over outcome sequences. Reference point effects can arise endogenously within an outcome sequence and exogenously from the experimental environment of the choice list. We show that estimated discount factors in the choice list are biased by both kinds of reference points and propose a model to jointly account for both. Our experimental design with outcome sequences also enables us to jointly estimate the discount factor and utility curvature. We further discuss the implications for recent developments in the measurement of intertemporal preference.