Dynamic Project Expediting: A Stochastic Shortest-Path Approach

• 成果类型: Article; Early Access
• 署名作者: Bertazzi, Luca; Mogre, Riccardo; Trichakis, Nikolaos
• 署名单位: University of Brescia; Durham University; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
• 刊物名称: MANAGEMENT SCIENCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0025-1909
• DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2023.4876
• 发表日期: 2023
• 关键词: project management; Project Risk; Markov Decision Process; stochastic dynamic programming; stochastic shortest path

摘要

We deal with the problem of managing a project or a complex operational process by controlling the execution pace of the activities it comprises. We consider a setting in which these activities are clearly defined, are subject to precedence constraints, and progress randomly. We formulate a discrete-time, infinite-horizon Markov decision process in which the manager reviews progress in each period and decides which activities to expedite to balance expediting costs with delay costs. We derive structural properties for this dynamic project expediting problem. These enable us then to devise exact solution methods that we show to reduce computational burden significantly. We illustrate how our method generalizes and can be used to tackle a wide range of so-called stochastic shortestpath problems that are characterized by an intuitive property and can capture other applications, including medical decision-making and disease-modeling problems. Moreover, we also deal with the state identification issue for our problem, which is a challenging task in and of itself, owing to precedence constraints. We complement our analytical results with numerical experiments, demonstrating that both our solution and state identification methods significantly outperform extant methods for a supply chain example and for various randomly generated instances.