Does past success lead analysts to become overconfident?

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Hilary, G; Menzly, L
• 署名单位: Hong Kong University of Science & Technology
• 刊物名称: MANAGEMENT SCIENCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0025-1909
• DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.1050.0485
• 发表日期: 2006
• 页码: 489-500
• 关键词: Overconfidence; Cognitive biases; analysts; EARNINGS FORECASTS

摘要

This paper provides evidence that analysts who have predicted earnings more accurately than the median analyst in the previous four quarters tend to be simultaneously less accurate and further from the consensus forecast in their subsequent earnings prediction. This phenomenon is economically and statistically meaningful. The results are robust to different estimation techniques and different control variables. Our findings are consistent with an attribution bias that leads analysts who have experienced a short-lived success to become overconfident in their ability to forecast future earnings.