Blinding Us to the Obvious? The Effect of Statistical Training on the Evaluation of Evidence

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: McShane, Blakeley B.; Gal, David
• 署名单位: Northwestern University; University of Illinois System; University of Illinois Chicago; University of Illinois Chicago Hospital
• 刊物名称: MANAGEMENT SCIENCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0025-1909
• DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2015.2212
• 发表日期: 2016
• 页码: 1707-1718
• 关键词: sociology of science; evaluation of evidence; strength of evidence; null hypothesis; significance testing; P-values; description; inference; JUDGMENT; CHOICE

摘要

Statistical training helps individuals analyze and interpret data. However, the emphasis placed on null hypothesis significance testing in academic training and reporting may lead researchers to interpret evidence dichotomously rather than continuously. Consequently, researchers may either disregard evidence that fails to attain statistical significance or undervalue it relative to evidence that attains statistical significance. Surveys of researchers across a wide variety of fields (including medicine, epidemiology, cognitive science, psychology, business, and economics) show that a substantial majority does indeed do so. This phenomenon is manifest both in researchers' interpretations of descriptions of evidence and in their likelihood judgments. Dichotomization of evidence is reduced though still present when researchers are asked to make decisions based on the evidence, particularly when the decision outcome is personally consequential. Recommendations are offered.