Stock Market Predictability and Industrial Metal Returns

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Jacobsen, Ben; Marshall, Ben R.; Visaltanachoti, Nuttawat
• 署名单位: Tilburg University; Massey University
• 刊物名称: MANAGEMENT SCIENCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0025-1909
• DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2017.2933
• 发表日期: 2019
• 页码: 3026-3042
• 关键词: industrial metals; state-switching; Return predictability; gradual information diffusion; business cycle

摘要

Price movements in industrial metals such as copper and aluminum predict stock returns. Increasing industrial metal prices are good news for equity markets in recessions and bad news in expansions. A one-standard-deviation increase in industrial metal returns predicts a price drop of one and a half percent in monthly stock market returns in expansions and an increase of around a half percent during recessions. The predictability is distinct to and compares favorably with that from more established predictors.