The Uncertain Value of Uncertainty: When Consumers Are Unwilling to Pay for What They Like

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Moon, Alice; Nelson, Leif D.
• 署名单位: University of Pennsylvania; University of California System; University of California Berkeley
• 刊物名称: MANAGEMENT SCIENCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0025-1909
• DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2019.3426
• 发表日期: 2020
• 页码: 4686-4702
• 关键词: willingness-to-pay; enjoyment; uncertainty; measurement; preference

摘要

Do people have an irrational dislike for risk? People pay less for uncertain prospects than their worst possible outcomes, and researchers have proposed that this effect occurs because people strongly dislike risk. We challenge this proposition across seven studies. Though people seem to irrationally dislike risky prospects when preference is assessed with open-ended pricing measures, such as willingness-to-pay, people display rational responses toward risky prospects when preference is assessed using rating measures, such as ratings of expected enjoyment. This discrepancy does not seemto arise because these measures (a) focus on different components of the uncertainty, (b) rely on contextdependent versus normed scales, or (c) involve voluntarily opting into an uncertain situation. Accordingly, we find that people also display rational responses toward risky prospects with time measures (i.e., willingness-to-wait and anticipated time usage) and choice. We discuss alternative explanations and crucial implications of our effects for both theory and application.