Anticipatory Consumptions

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Guo, Liang
• 署名单位: Chinese University of Hong Kong
• 刊物名称: MANAGEMENT SCIENCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0025-1909
• DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2019.3367
• 发表日期: 2020
• 页码: 3717-3734
• 关键词: Anticipation; emotions; negative devaluing; time inconsistency; time preference

摘要

Mental simulations such as anticipatory and/or retrospective emotions can yield higher weight for a delayed consequence than for current well-being (i.e., negative devaluing). In this research, we investigate the behavioral and welfare implications of negative devaluing for intertemporal consumptions in an intrapersonal game. Our general framework accounts for two distinctions: desired versus undesired consumptions, and naive versus sophisticated beliefs about future selves' preferences. Naive people pro-crastinate desired consumptions and preproperate undesired ones. The behavior of so-phisticated people generally exhibits a cyclical pattern. Sophistication may either mitigate or exacerbate the time-inconsistency problem, and hence may improve or undermine long-run welfare, depending on the valence and the units of consumptions and on whether consumptions are tied consecutively. In addition, our comparative statics analysis generates surprising results with respect to the impacts of decision parameters (e.g., deadline, consumption units). We also discuss implications for targeted pricing, product design, promotion strategies, and savings.