When uncertainty is beneficial: Interesting implications for the hydrocarbon discovery process
成果类型：
Article
署名作者：
Gerchak, Y; He, QM; Fuller, JD; Chungcharoen, E
署名单位：
Tel Aviv University; Dalhousie University; University of Waterloo; Thammasat University
刊物名称：
OPERATIONS RESEARCH
ISSN/ISSBN：
0030-364X
DOI：
10.1287/opre.50.6.1068.344
发表日期：
2002
页码：
1068-1072
关键词：
摘要：
Consider a basin with remaining undiscovered fields, in which both field sizes and their number are uncertain. Assuming that the probability of finding a field is increasing in its size, we show that the expected size of the first remaining field discovered, which is of particular importance, is increasing in the variability of field sizes, and results from a simulation model of exploration illustrate this trend for the first several fields discovered. We also provide simple bounds on the expected size of the first field discovered. It seems that more information (less variability) leads to less value-something unexpected. We explore and explain this seemingly counterintuitive result.