Models of the spiral-down effect in revenue management
成果类型：
Article
署名作者：
Cooper, William L.; Homem-de-Mello, Tito; Kleywegt, Anton J.
署名单位：
University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; Northwestern University; University System of Georgia; Georgia Institute of Technology
刊物名称：
OPERATIONS RESEARCH
ISSN/ISSBN：
0030-364X
DOI：
10.1287/opre.1060.0304
发表日期：
2006
页码：
968-987
关键词：
摘要：
The spiral-down effect occurs when incorrect assumptions about customer behavior cause high-fare ticket sales, protection levels, and revenues to systematically decrease over time. If an airline decides how many seats to protect for sale at a high fare based on past high-fare sales, while neglecting to account for the fact that availability of low-fare tickets will reduce high-fare sales, then high-fare sales will decrease, resulting in lower future estimates of high-fare demand. This subsequently yields lower protection levels for high-fare tickets, greater availability of low-fare tickets, and even lower high-fare ticket sales. The pattern continues, resulting in a so-called spiral down. We develop a mathematical framework to analyze the process by which airlines forecast demand and optimize booking controls over a sequence of flights. Within the framework, we give conditions under which spiral down occurs.