Spatial queueing analysis of an interdiction system to protect cities from a nuclear terrorist attack
成果类型：
Article
署名作者：
Atkinson, Michael P.; Wein, Lawrence M.
署名单位：
Stanford University; Stanford University
刊物名称：
OPERATIONS RESEARCH
ISSN/ISSBN：
0030-364X
DOI：
10.1287/opre.1070.0490
发表日期：
2008
页码：
247-254
关键词：
摘要：
We formulate and analyze a spatial queueing model concerning a terrorist who is attempting to drive a nuclear or radiological weapon toward a target in a city center. In our model, imperfect radiation sensors form a circular wall around the periphery of the city, and vehicles setting off sensor alarms ( representing a terrorist or a nuisance alarm) arrive randomly at the perimeter of a circle ( representing the wall of sensors) and drive toward the center of the circle. Interdiction vehicles, one in each wedge of the circle, chase the alarm-generating vehicles. We derive an accurate mathematical expression for the mean damage inflicted by a terrorist in this system in terms of the arrival rate of alarm-generating vehicles and the number of interdiction vehicles. Our results suggest that detection-interdiction systems using current technology are capable of mitigating the damage from a nuclear weapon made of plutonium, but not one made of uranium or a radiological weapon.