A Meta-Analysis of Newsvendor Experiments: Revisiting the Pull-to-Center Asymmetry

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Zhang, Yinghao; Siemsen, Enno
• 署名单位: University System of Ohio; University of Cincinnati; University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison
• 刊物名称: PRODUCTION AND OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1059-1478
• DOI: 10.1111/poms.12899
• 发表日期: 2019
• 页码: 140-156
• 关键词: META-ANALYSIS; behavioral operations; newsvendor experiments; pull-to-center; asymmetry

摘要

The field of behavioral operations has produced a rich tradition of experiments in newsvendor decision-making. Our study provides a meta-analysis of 24 papers in this research area; we confirm that the pull-to-center (PtC) effect, where average order quantities in a sample lie in between average demand and optimal order quantities, is a very stable observable phenomenon across studies. However, we also show that the asymmetry in the PtC effect between high-margin and low-margin conditions varies significantly from study to study; factors that allow predicting the extent and direction of the PtC asymmetry include the likelihood of obtaining losses, the way underage costs are presented to subjects, and the existence of a decision support system. We validate these factors using a controlled experiment. In conclusion, the PtC asymmetry appears less as a fundamental attribute of human behavior, but rather as a function of the design aspects of the experiment.