Risk Pooling, Supply Chain Hierarchy, and Analysts' Forecasts

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Hu, Nan; Ke, Jian-Yu (Fisher); Liu, Ling; Zhang, Yue
• 署名单位: Xi'an Jiaotong University; Stevens Institute of Technology; California State University System; California State University Dominguez Hills; University of Wisconsin System; Lingnan University
• 刊物名称: PRODUCTION AND OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1059-1478
• DOI: 10.1111/poms.12904
• 发表日期: 2019
• 页码: 276-291
• 关键词: risk pooling; supply chain hierarchy; analyst forecast accuracy; public vs. private information; systematic risk

摘要

We investigate whether a firm's risk pooling affects its analysts' forecasts, specifically in terms of forecast accuracy and their use of public vs. private information, and how risk pooling interacts with a firm's position in the supply chain to affect analysts' forecasts. We use a social network analysis method to operationalize risk pooling and supply chain hierarchy, and find that risk pooling significantly reduces analysts' forecast errors and increases (decreases) their use of public (private) information. We also find that the positive (negative) relationships between risk pooling and analyst forecast accuracy and analysts' use of public (private) information are more pronounced upstream than downstream in a supply chain.