Which Is More Rewarding in Managing Sea-Level Rise and Hurricane Storm Surge Flooding: Mitigation or Response?

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Jenkins, Donald John; Pajouh, Foad Mahdavi; Kirshen, Paul H.; Eftekhar, Mahyar
• 署名单位: University of Massachusetts System; University of Massachusetts Boston; Stevens Institute of Technology; University of Massachusetts System; University of Massachusetts Boston; Arizona State University; Arizona State University-Tempe
• 刊物名称: PRODUCTION AND OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1059-1478
• DOI: 10.1177/10591478231224945
• 发表日期: 2024
• 页码: 364-382
• 关键词: climate change adaptation; coastal flooding; decision-making under risk; mitigation; network optimization

摘要

This study aims to extend the existing climate-change-induced flood mitigation research. We introduce an at-risk network to evaluate optimal cost-benefit strategies for creating dikes and levees to mitigate flood hazard over multiple years. Our proposed model includes the expected flood costs, estimated using possible climate-change-induced sea-level states throughout the planning horizon, and the investment costs for developing dikes and levees via land elevations across the at-risk network. Further, given the limitations on infrastructure investment, our model incorporates a budget constraint. The problem is modeled as a multistage stochastic program with recourse that minimizes overall expected costs over the planning horizon. Exploiting open-source and freely accessible data sets, the flood risk mitigation model elaborated here can be applied to most urban coastal situations due to its general nature. Using Boston as a case study, our proposed method resulted in a cost reduction of as much as 92.2%, with an average of 63.2%, compared to a do nothing strategy in a simulation-based experiment. Under a high sea-level rise scenario, the average cost savings observed by implementing the solution suggested by our model could be even 15% higher. This proposed approach offers decision-makers a tool to frequently assess the costs and risks faced by their cities enabling them to effectively mitigate the potential flooding risks.